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Overview of development trends in various segments of medical technology
2022-09-30
Recently, the Zhongguancun Cloud Computing Industry Alliance and China Cloud Industry Alliance jointly released the " 2022 China Cloud Computing Ecology Blue Book" together with Hanergy Investments . The Blue Book provides a detailed discussion of vertical industry applications including medical technology. With the increasing maturity of cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies, many emerging technologies are more and more widely blooming in the medical field.
01 AI Pharma
At present, AI Pharma has partially replaced the traditional research process, and has been successfully applied in target discovery, lead compound screening and optimization, compound synthesis, crystal form prediction, etc., and has promoted many drugs to enter the clinical research stage. According to Grand View Research, the global AI new drug research and development will reach US$3.117 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 40.7%.
Source: Grand View Research
From a global perspective, AI pharmaceutical companies have completed technology and proof-of-concept and entered the mainstreaming and commercialization stage. At present, more than 30 AI drug R&D-related pipelines have entered the clinical research stage in the world, and more than 10 AI pharmaceutical companies have successfully launched IPOs. The Blue Book predicts that with the further improvement of the acceptance of AI pharmaceutical technology by large multinational pharmaceutical companies representing the most advanced productivity in the industry, it is expected to drive the traditional pharmaceutical industry to further integrate with AI pharmaceutical technology, thus making AI pharmaceuticals a universal tool for the industry.
同时，应用领域不断扩张，将从小分子向大分子发展，应用场景也将从靶点发现、化合物筛选、化合物优化进一步向药物研发后端扩展。AI 制药企业的商业模式将越来越多从药研工具转为新型 Biotech 企业。伴随全球发展浪潮，中国 AI 制药行业发展也进入新阶段，企业将从单环节业务向平台化能力发展。
02 数字疗法
数字疗法从 2017 年诞生，到2021 年在全球兴起，商业化逐步落地，发展十分迅速，欧美市场发展较快，国内目前正处于早期阶段。根据多个研究报告数据显示，数字疗法全球市场规模有望在 2026 年达到 100 亿美元水平，年均复合增长率超过 20%，未来将保持较高增速，有数据显示国内目前数字疗法整体规模在 1~5 亿元，未来 5 年潜在市场规模有望达到 100 亿水平。
资料来源：汉能分析
关于未来的发展趋势，蓝皮书指出，数字疗法将在慢病及精神类疾病领域迎来高速发展，手机、可穿戴设备等移动终端的持续发展与普及将为数字疗法的爆发提供基础，使其能够无缝渗透以及连接人们全流程的健康场景，包括健康管理、疾病的预防、治疗以及术后康复等等。数字疗法企业还面临着诸多问题，如商业化、支付机制、依从性等问题，所以数字疗法融合现有治疗方式将成为新的发展方向。目前资本端、学术界以及医疗产业界都持续下注数字疗法，临床研究大幅增长，价值正在逐步释放，未来商业化将逐渐清晰。
03 医疗大数据
麦肯锡在 2013 年报告中预测仅在美国，医疗大数据的应用有望减少 3,000-4,500 亿美元/年的医疗费用。我国存在人口基数巨大、医疗资源浪费严重、医疗资源紧缺和配置不合理、医疗支出增长过快、商保发展乏力等问题，医疗大数据的可应用场景丰富且能深度挖掘，我国医疗大数据的市场规模至少在千亿级。
资料来源：麦肯锡
根据中商产业研究院最新数据显示，中国医疗大数据解决方案的市场规模从 2016 年的 28 亿元增长至 2021 年的 213 亿元，年均复合增长率 50%。
资料来源：中商产业研究院
当前，我国医疗数据信息孤岛众多，医疗子行业间数据割裂严重。国家出台了一系列政策鼓励医疗数据互联互通，一批医疗机构与企业也在医疗大数据领域展开合作，未来，医疗大数据的融合和管理将逐步实现。与此同时，医疗数据加速积累，对存储的安全性、管理以及使用的合规性等提出更高要求，而技术进步进一步丰富医疗大数据，并使得数据的存储、分析和运用成为可能。
04 AI 医学影像
2020 年来，随着 AI 影像医疗器械三类证的获批，AI 医学影像行业逐步进入收获期，覆盖的病种及应用场景进一步丰富，商业化落地也进一步加速，催生了诸如医准智能、Airdoc 等在内的多家行业龙头。根据亿欧智库测算，2020 年中国 AI 医疗影像市场规模约 3 亿元，随着市场快速发展，预计在 2023 年达到 20.6 亿元规模，CAGR 约 87.6%。
蓝皮书指出，随着入院合规性提高，预计行业商业化将提速。同时，伴随技术成熟度逐渐提高，AI 医疗影像将从多环节解决方案向一体化解决方案发展。
05 手术机器人
手术机器人未来具备巨大的应用潜力。当前按照临床应用角度可以分为 1）腔镜手术机器人 2）骨科手术机器人 3）泛血管手术机器人 4）经自然腔道手术机器人 5）经皮穿刺手术机器人 6）其他手术机器人等六大类别。目前腔镜手术机器人发展最为成熟，其在普外、泌尿、妇科等多个领域不断拓展，骨科、泛血管等手术机器人也在迅猛发展，逐步走向成熟阶段。
资料来源：公开资料整理，汉能分析
According to the latest data from Frost & Sullivan, the global surgical robot market is expected to reach USD 33.59 billion by 2026. The domestic global surgical robot market size is expected to reach USD 3.84 billion by 2026.
In the future, surgical robots will comprehensively cover various types of surgeries in various surgical segments. New technologies will continue to be applied to surgical robotic systems, and possible technological innovation directions include: force feedback /tactile feedback, artificial intelligence + cloud computing, AR/VR, and nanorobots. In recent years, the government has formulated a series of policies to encourage the development and innovation of high-end medical devices. It is expected that surgical robots will continue to receive policy support in the future, and commercialization will usher in greater development.
06 Health Insurance Technology
Medical insurance technology companies mainly target the out-of-hospital health management market and the commercial health insurance market, using innovative payment as a means, driven by technologies such as big data and AI, and integrating the full-process service portfolio of in-hospital and out-of-hospital markets, social and commercial health insurance markets , and finally establish a full-cycle health management business.
According to statistics, the market size of out-of-hospital health management is expected to reach 2,219.3 billion yuan in 2030, and the commercial health insurance market is expected to reach 645.1 billion yuan in 2030.
Source: Yuanxin Technology Prospectus
At present, the demand for medical insurance cost control has become increasingly strong. In recent years, the government has issued a series of policies to deepen the medical reform from a deeper level. The essence is to make the medical industry more market-oriented, so as to introduce more social capital, make resource allocation more reasonable, improve efficiency, and ultimately Reduce government health insurance spending and reduce patient medical costs. The blue book pointed out that the medical insurance technology industry will enjoy more policy dividends and usher in accelerated development by integrating the medical market, linking insurance claims and medical services, and coupling the interests of multiple parties. Although a number of unicorns have been born in the current medical insurance technology industry, a clear competition pattern has not yet been formed. In the future, more players will emerge in the industry to jointly make the cake bigger. On the other hand, technological progress will also promote the development of the industry to mature, and creating a full-cycle health management will become the final development direction of the industry.
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